The competitive nature of the Arab Middle Eastern (AME) banking markets during the 1990s is the focus subject of this study. Using banks data from nine AME countries, and utilizing the so-called Rosse-Panzar test to quantitatively appraise the dominant competitive conditions in these markets between 1993-97, this study concluded that banking markets have been operating in the region under conditions of monopolistic competition. An important finding revealed by this study is that in the AME region, where two distinct economic spectrums dominate the markets, banking sector in the oil-producing countries (Gulf States) appears to be less competitive than its counterpart in non-oil countries. (JEL G28); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 267-75, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

The purpose of this paper is to first apply the theory of trade in vertically differentiated products in a Customs Union context and second to find out the effects of the Customs Union between the European Union and Turkey. This is done both at a theoretical and at an empirical level. Based on these assumptions, the theoretical analysis indicates that the benefits of admitting Turkey into the Customs Union will be unevenly spread between Germany and Greece. In particular, Germany will definitely benefit, whereas Greece may suffer losses. In the empirical part of the paper, it is examined whether the predictions emanating from the theoretical analysis find any empirical support. For this purpose, the behavior of Greek and Turkish exports to the European Union is examined using desegregated data. The evidence is supportive of the theoretical predictions. (JEL F15, O50 ); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 275-84, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

New ideas on the role of central banks have been exposed in recent years. This paper studies the evolution of the consumer price index and the treasury bill rate in the 11 countries of the European Union that have adopted the euro to see if it could be considered to be consistent with a unified economic policy, as directed by the European Central Bank. This evolution is analyzed during the first year and a half of the existence of the euro. (JEL C31, C39); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 287-95, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

The paper reports on the multiplier analysis of comparable Social Accounting Matrices for Russia and China. The benchmark is around 1990, which constitutes a crucial year in their transition to more mixed market-state economies. Growth multipliers in China are found to be higher than in Russia, reflecting more intensive and balanced circular flow interactions. Distribution multipliers are less regressive in China than in Russia, which reflect stronger trickle-down effects and weaker leakage-up effects in the income and expenditure patterns of rich and poor household groups in China as compared to Russia. (JEL O1, P5); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 296-304, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

The balance of payments barrier is the biggest obstacle to growth in Eastern Europe. This problem stems from the existence of individual national currencies which dynamically increases the risk associated with capital inflows. Capital inflow leads to both domestic growth and domestic currency real appreciation, reducing net exports to a level insufficient to service international debt obligations stemming from capital inflow. To avoid losses when capital flows are reversed, high domestic interest rates are required to stem capital outflow. Result is the decline of domestic economic activity. Adoption of foreign currency eliminates the need for net exports as the source of revenue needed to service debt obligation, hence it renders the balance of payments as an obstacle to sustained capital flows and economic growth irrelevant. (JEL O50); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 305-13, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

Conventional theory proposes that firms reward productivity improvements with higher wages. Conversely, efficiency wage theory suggests that wages can induce greater productivity. This paper applies a statistical technique that disentangles the potential bidirectional feedback between wages and productivity. Wage strategies in six industrialized countries with various labor market institutions are examined. Conventional and efficiency wage practices vary systematically across the industrialized countries; these variations are consistent with the expected effects of labor market institutions. (JEL J3, J4, J5); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 314-23, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

MICHAEL YE, JOHN ZYREN, AND JOANNE SHORE

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. (JEL Q40, C53); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 324-33, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

Central City Fiscal Conditions and MSA Population Distribution

PAUL L. HETTLER

This article empirically examines the relationship between local fiscal conditions and the distribution of population within a metropolitan area. Specifically, it is concerned with how central city policies may affect shifts of population to the suburbs. This has strong policy implications especially for cities undertaking economic redevelopment programs, which may have spillover benefits or costs to their surrounding suburbs. This analysis utilizes a panel of county level Census of Population and Census of Governments data spanning 1960-90 to examine these issues. The results show that central city fiscal conditions are expected to affect the relative size of an MSA's city and suburban population. (JEL H71, H73, R23); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 334-47, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

Unit and Fractional Roots with Deterministic Trends in the UK Output

LUIS A. GIL-ALANA

In this article, the nominal, real, and real per capita GDP series are modeled in the UK by means of fractionally integrated techniques. A version of the tests of Robinson [1994] are used that permits the incorporation of deterministic trends with no effect on the standard (normal) limit distribution of the tests. The results show that the nominal GDP appears to be nonstationary and non-mean reverting, with its order of integration being much higher than 1. The real GDP also appears to be nonstationary and the order of integration fluctuates widely between 0.6 and 1.2. Finally, the real per capita GDP seems to be stationary, either I(0) or I(d), with D positive but close to 0. (JEL C22); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 348-56, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents

E-Index for Measuring Concentration

JOSÉ MARÍA MONTERO LORENZO

The goal of measuring the existing concentration of an economic magnitude among the elements in which it is distributed has been over the past years one of the major worries in the economic statistics arena. Among all the concentration indexes, the Gini index has been applied to a greater extent. This study considers that the traditional Gini index definition, according to a wide array of introductory statistics textbooks, is only applicable in the case of unitary frequency distributions. When dealing with non-unitary frequency distributions, it is possible to convert them into unitary ones, allowing for the application of the Gini index. Nevertheless, it can be appreciated how laborious such a task will be in those cases where the number of elements of the distribution is of considerable magnitude. The aim of this paper is to avoid this handicap by presenting an alternative index, the E-index. (JEL C10); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res. 8(4): pp. 357-61, Nov. 02. ©All Rights Reserved.

Back to Contents