This paper proposes a three-country model of trade that captures the role of communications networks which enhance trade in business services. The interconnectivity of country-specific networks is found to determine the structure of comparative advantage in the good that requires business services provided via networks. In connected countries, producers of that good benefit from the growing connectivity of business services providers. It is also shown that the third country which is unconnected to the interconnected networks may be worse off from trade. (JEL D43, F12); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 1-6, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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In the area of international trade, few studies have examined whether increases in exchange-rate volatility depress trade flows of LDCs. The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the impact of exchange-rate volatility on the export flows of 10 developing countries over the quarterly period 1973-98. The econometric analysis exploits the theory of cointegration, given the obvious nonstationarity of the data. Estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using Johansen's multivariate procedure. Evidence of stability of the cointegrating space is examined using Hansen's [1992a] tests. Short-run dynamic modelling is accomplished using the error-correction technique, and the stability test results are obtained using Hansen [1992b] tests. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange-rate volatility exert a significant negative effect upon export demand in both the short-run and the long-run in most of the countries studied. These effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants. (JEL F14, F31 ); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 7-19, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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The Capital Asset Pricing Model has been used frequently to derive a fair price of insurance. But the use of this model overestimates insurance premiums because it does not account for the insolvency risk of insurers. This paper examines how the insurance price should be fairly adjusted when insurers' default risk is considered. It develops a model which shows that fair insurance premiums are lower when insurance firms have a positive probability of being insolvent. Using data of property liability insurers during the period from 1943-99, the paper further estimates the effects of the insolvency risk on insurers' underwriting profit rate. It shows that the incorporation of the default risk of insurers in the model, by significantly reducing the required price for insurance, would lead to lower profit potentials. Some writers argue that including the insolvency risk when calculating insurance premiums is not so necessary because of the existence of states' guaranty insurance funds which protect consumers. However, as shown in the paper, these funds have provided inadequate protection to consumers. Therefore, because of the increase in the number of insolvencies in recent years, and because of the limited coverage provided by states' guaranty funds, it seems that considering the insolvency risk in insurance pricing has become very necessary. (JEL G22); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 20-34, Feb 03. © All Rights Reserved.

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The purpose of this paper is to calculate purchasing power parity rates and the real exchange rate using several methods of calculation to estimate long-run equilibrium real exchange rates in transition economies, mainly in Eastern European countries considered in transition, such as Poland. The authors calculate different measures of exchange rate misalignment (absolute and relative deviations from long-run equilibrium). Each measure is calculated using different price indices, which include consumer price indices, GDP deflactor, and unit labor cost. The expected values of these variables are used. To calculate the long-run equilibrium, different methods such as an error correction equation and a forward-looking model are utilized, and again, the expected values of the variables are introduced along with new variables. The estimation of the long-run cointegration equation of the equilibrium real exchange rate and the corresponding dynamic error correction specification strongly corroborates the model and produced fairly consistent results across the countries under study. Using appropriated proxies, the estimated long run equations were used to derive indices of the equilibrium real exchange rate. (JEL E41, C5); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 35-47, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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September 11, 2001 is the defining date of a new world order. Like all individuals and commercial activities in the U.S., American banks and other domestic financial institutions were affected by the events of the terrorist attacks and by the subsequent responses of the American government and business community. Some of the effects of the attacks were immediate and fleeting. Others, however, were likely to have altered the environment of the financial services industry, particularly banking, in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. This paper is an initial consideration of these more lasting effects. (JEL G20); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 48-55, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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The aim of this work is to measure the risk-price sensitivity to interest rate changes in the Spanish market and to see if sensitivity is lower with public debt. To contrast this hypothesis, this study presents a model that analyzes the sensitivity of the risky prices before variations in interest rates through duration and convexity, with the purpose of explaining the price of risky bonds. The main advantages of the analysis are the possibility to determine the sensibility of the risky prices before variations of risk-free interest rates in the Spanish market and the construction of a conditional volatility model that overcomes the linearity models of constant variance. (JEL G19, E43); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 56-63, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in Germany

RICHARD J. CEBULA

This study uses the basic tools of cointegration to determine whether there exists a long-term relationship between budget deficits and nominal interest rates in Germany. Maximum eigenvalue, trace, and likelihood ratio tests all affirm that there does apparently exist a long-term relationship between the budget deficit and the nominal interest rate. Accordingly, regression studies and formal causality tests have a reasonable basis for investigating whether budget deficits lead to higher interest rates in Germany. (JEL E43, E6, E62); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 7-19, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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Mean Spillover Effects in Agricultural Prices:
Evidence from Changes in Policy Regimes

NICHOLAS APERGIS AND ANTHONY REZITIS

This paper investigates the behavior of input, output, and consumer food prices under two different policy regime periods, before and after the reformulation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) occurred in May 1992. The findings, through Granger causality tests, support a different behavior in terms of the transmission from the input level to the consumer level and vice versa. This transmission occurs through the output level only for the post-CAP reformulation period, while it occurs in a direct manner over the first period. The results imply that the decrease of agricultural output prices, due to lower minimum support prices following the reformulation of the CAP, is transmitted through the output price mechanism in both input and consumer food markets. (JEL Q11, Q13); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 69-78, Feb 03. ©All Rights Reserved.

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Spanish Regional Policy: Economic and
Social Cohesion in the European Union

ISABEL PARDO GARCIA

The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic and social cohesion from the Spanish perspective. The hypothesis is that the economic and social cohesion in the European Union needs three requirements. First, the Structural Funds, European Regional Development Fund, European Social Fund and European Agricultural Guide, and Guarantee Fund, increase their weight in the community budget. Second, the resources of those funds must be concentrated on the lesser developed regions. Third, each region assigns its resources to the improvement of the factors that contribute to its backwardness (quality of human capital, innovation, development, and managerial initiative). The analysis is based on the first and second Community Support Framework [CSF 1989-93 and CSF 1994-99]. (JEL R58, O18); Int'l Advances in Econ. Res., 9(1): pp. 79-83, Feb 03.©All Rights Reserved.

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