Racial/Ethnic Projections of the U.S. Retired Population
Karen Leppel, Widener University
In recent decades, the racial and ethnic composition of the United States population has undergone significant changes. The percentages of African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians have been increasing dramatically. Part of this change is due to differences in birth rates. The birth rate in 1998 for non-Hispanic whites was 12.3 per thousand persons. This rate was lower than the rates of 16.4 for Asians and Pacific Islanders, 18.2 for non-Hispanic blacks, and 24.3 for Hispanics. (See U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Vital Statistics Reports, V. 38, No. 3.) Another factor influencing the racial and ethnic composition of the United States population is migration. The U.S. Census Bureau projected net migration estimates for 1999 of 468 thousand Hispanics, 161 thousand non-Hispanic whites, 93 thousand non-Hispanic blacks, and 229 thousand non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islanders. These figures represent 1.5%, 0.08%, 0.28%, and 2.2% of the respective populations. (U.S. Department of Commerce, Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, Issued January 13, 2000.)
Mortality also plays a part in determining the racial and ethnic composition of the country. When the United States was first founded, life expectancy at birth was about 35 years. By the year 1950, life expectancy had risen to about 68 years. In recent decades, the increase in life expectancy has continued but at a slower rate. (U.S. Department of Commerce, 65+ in the United States, Current Population Reports: Special Studies, Issued April 1996.) The Census Bureau has projected that life expectancy will increase from 74.1 and 79.8 for males and females respectively in 1999 to 77.6 and 83.6 in 2025. Mortality varies with racial and ethnic group. The 1999 life expectancies at birth were estimated to be 74.7 and 80.1 for non-Hispanic white males and females, 68.4 and 75.1 for non-Hispanic blacks, 80.9 and 86.5 for non-Hispanic Asians, and 77.2 and 83.7 for Hispanics. (U.S. Department of Commerce, Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, Issued January 13, 2000.) When racial and ethnic differences in fertility, mortality, and migration are combined, we can expect to see changes over time in the size and composition of the older population of the United States.
As people age, more and more of them drop out of the labor force. Without current earnings, it becomes increasingly important to have other sources of income that can be used to pay expenses. These expenses include both the typical costs incurred by the average individual and also the higher medical costs usually incurred by the elderly. If racial and ethnic differences exist in labor force participation patterns, the demographic composition of the older population will influence the size and composition of the non-participant population. Furthermore, if the needs and preferences of the older population vary with race and ethnicity, it becomes important to understand whom the older, non-participant population is, in order to prepare financially, medically, and socially.
The current study combines population projections and current labor force patterns to explore the expected demographic composition of the United States older, non-participant population in the year 2030.
To make demographic comparisons of “non-participation rates” (percentages not in the labor force) for various age brackets over 55 years of age, Current Population Survey data for the year 2000 were examined. The rate for each demographic group was compared to the rate for non-Hispanic whites. Considering men first, relative to non-Hispanic whites, non-participation rates for non-Hispanic blacks were higher for all age brackets over 55 years of age. Non-participation rates for Asians and Pacific Islanders were lower for ages 55 to 64, about the same for ages 65-69, and higher for ages 70 and older. (Non-participation rates were considered to be “about the same” for two demographic groups, if the rates were within 2% of each other.) Non-participation rates were about the same for Hispanic men ages 55 to 69, and higher for Hispanics aged 70 and older.
For women, relative to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks had higher non-participation rates for ages 55 to 64 and 70 to 74; the rates were about the same for non-Hispanic blacks aged 65 to 69 and 75 and older. Non-participation rates were lower for Asian women 60 to 62, about the same for Asians and Pacific Islanders aged 55-59, 62 to 64, and 75 and older, and higher for Asian women aged 65 to 74. Non-participation rates were higher for Hispanic women for all age brackets over 55 years of age.
Focusing on the entire population, not just the non-participants, population projections were examined for age brackets over 55, for males and females separately. It was found that the percentages of the population that are Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic black, are expected to increase for all age and gender groups. When the non-participation rates were combined with population projections, the percent of non-participants that are Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic black was expected to increase for all the age/gender groups as well.
Thus, it is evident that the representation of Hispanics, Asians, and blacks in the non-participant older population is increasing. It is, therefore, important that the needs and preferences of this population are studied and variations by race and ethnicity are recognized. Only when these needs and preferences are well understood will it be possible to adequately prepare financially, medically, and socially.