Drug Use and Crime: An Examination of Economic Characteristics
Michael Everett and
James Marshall,
Objectives. 1) To identify and to assess the economic
impact of crime related to drug use; 2) To link economic arguments regarding
drug illegality and legalization to a major public health issue (crime) in the
U.S.; 3) To estimate the price and income elasticities of drug use; 4) To
discuss the economic characteristics of an effective U.S. public health policy
for diminished crime in the U.S.
Background. There is ample evidence to suggest that the
current system of the illegality of drugs is a waste of society’s economic
resources. For several years, under the
current system, the
A major problem related to illegal
drug use is crime. The authors define
crime as violent interpersonal acts
(assaults, homicides, domestic violence) and non-violent acts (burglary,
robbery, theft). In this paper,
we suggest that the incidence of crime is related directly to economic
characteristics including specific drug usage and price, user personal income,
and money user spends on drug use. A
goal of this paper is to determine whether or not a strong relationship exists
between crime and drug use. After
knowing more specific information about the suggested relationship we will
provide a better understanding of drug use and crime in the
There are people who argue that the
current system of illegality of drugs imposes criminal sanctions such as fines
and jail time that will encourage people to avoid using and possessing
drugs. Furthermore, people argue that
drug users may attempt to finance their drug activities by committing theft,
burglary, prostitution, assaulting police officers, rape, assault, and
homicide.
On the other hand, strong evidence suggests that
the illegality of drugs encourages people to commit crime. With regard to criminal sanctions, is the
threat of punishment enough to prohibit a drug user from committing a property
crime if the user really, really wants or needs to obtain a drug? Evidence suggests that criminal sanctions are
not enough. With regard to users
financing drug activities by committing crimes, recent evidence suggests that
the financing connection is weak. Even
if the actual number of criminal acts was high, there is strong evidence to
support that drug enforcement policies are to blame. In other words, that one opportunity cost of
the resources used in an increased effort to control drug activities may be an
increase in crime. All in all, a study
of the economic impact of factors involving drug use and availability is
necessary.
Data/Methods.
We will obtain state-level data for this project. To get data for three of the factors we will
use the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA). The NHSDA contains
Part
I
We
predict that crime (dependent variable) is a function several economic factors
of drug use (independent variables).
Crime will be represented by violent
interpersonal acts and non-violent acts.
Also, the specific violent interpersonal acts dependent variables
include the following: assaults,
homicides, domestic violence, sexual violence, and child abuse. The specific non-violent acts dependent
variables include the following: burglary, robbery, and theft. The specific drug use independent variables
include the following: specific drug used, drug price, age of user, personal
income, and dollars spent on drug use.
The following list shows all variables used in this study:
Dependent variables: assaults burglary
homicides robbery
domestic violence theft
Independent variables: specific drug used
drug price
age of user
personal income
dollars spent on drug use
In
order to test the relationships between the multiple dependent variables and
the multiple independent variables, we will use the statistical tool called
canonical correlation analysis (CCA).
CCA is a logical extension of multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression
involves a single metric variable and several metric independent
variables. With CCA we can analyze
several dependent variables and several independent variables. CCA correlates simultaneously several metric
dependent and independent variables. One
can use as many dependent and independent variables as needed for the analysis.
Part
II
In
addition to looking at crime and drug use, we plan to look at the relationship
between specific drug use (dependent variable) and personal income and age of
user (independent variables). We expect
that there is a predictive relationship among those variables that would pose
interest to researchers and policy makers.
A multiple regression will be used to examine this particular
relationship.
Expected Results. The results from the canonical correlation
analysis will allow us to test our predictions pertaining to the strength of
specific variables as well as the strength of the relationships among all
variables. In particular, the analysis
will yield raw canonical coefficients for the variables, standardized variable
coefficients for the variables, and correlations between the variables and their
canonical variable equivalents. These
coefficients and correlations will allow us to see whether or not our
predictions are significant.
Discussion.
The results of this study will provide important information about particular
crimes and the economic factors of drug use that affect those crimes. Policy makers could use this information in
order to determine strategies that may diminish significantly the amount of
criminal activity related to drug use.
One strategy could be a tax structure for legalized drug use. More and more each year, political discourse
arises pertaining to whether or not drugs should be legalized. There is evidence that legalization could
result in billions of dollars in potential tax revenues. In this study, our main goal was to begin
foundational work that may be used to guide policy makers toward the
development of an effective tax structure for drug use.