Drug Use and Crime: An Examination of Economic Characteristics

Michael Everett and James Marshall, Quinnipiac University

 

Objectives.     1) To identify and to assess the economic impact of crime related to drug use; 2) To link economic arguments regarding drug illegality and legalization to a major public health issue (crime) in the U.S.; 3) To estimate the price and income elasticities of drug use; 4) To discuss the economic characteristics of an effective U.S. public health policy for diminished crime in the U.S.

 

Background.   There is ample evidence to suggest that the current system of the illegality of drugs is a waste of society’s economic resources.  For several years, under the current system, the U.S. government has given a lot of money for law enforcement and other programs aimed at preventing the use and selling of drugs.  Recently, federal government spending on drug prevention programs has been questioned because it appears to many U.S. citizens that problems related to illegal drugs have not diminished as expected.  As citizens of the U.S., we do expect the number of crimes to be as minimal as possible.  Given that problems related to drug use have not decreased, this study is an opportunity to examine further the relationship between drug use and problems related to its use.

A major problem related to illegal drug use is crime.  The authors define crime as violent interpersonal acts (assaults, homicides, domestic violence) and non-violent acts (burglary, robbery, theft).  In this paper, we suggest that the incidence of crime is related directly to economic characteristics including specific drug usage and price, user personal income, and money user spends on drug use.  A goal of this paper is to determine whether or not a strong relationship exists between crime and drug use.  After knowing more specific information about the suggested relationship we will provide a better understanding of drug use and crime in the U.S.

There are people who argue that the current system of illegality of drugs imposes criminal sanctions such as fines and jail time that will encourage people to avoid using and possessing drugs.  Furthermore, people argue that drug users may attempt to finance their drug activities by committing theft, burglary, prostitution, assaulting police officers, rape, assault, and homicide.

On the other hand, strong evidence suggests that the illegality of drugs encourages people to commit crime.  With regard to criminal sanctions, is the threat of punishment enough to prohibit a drug user from committing a property crime if the user really, really wants or needs to obtain a drug?  Evidence suggests that criminal sanctions are not enough.  With regard to users financing drug activities by committing crimes, recent evidence suggests that the financing connection is weak.  Even if the actual number of criminal acts was high, there is strong evidence to support that drug enforcement policies are to blame.  In other words, that one opportunity cost of the resources used in an increased effort to control drug activities may be an increase in crime.  All in all, a study of the economic impact of factors involving drug use and availability is necessary. 

 

Data/Methods.     We will obtain state-level data for this project.  To get data for three of the factors we will use the 1999 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA).  The NHSDA contains Connecticut patient-level data on violence and criminal acts related to drug use as well as on drug usage, drug prices, average income, and dollars spent on drug use.  Data regarding the amount of tax revenue generated by legal addictions such as alcohol and tobacco will be obtained from the State of Connecticut’s Department of Tax and Revenue.

Part I

We predict that crime (dependent variable) is a function several economic factors of drug use (independent variables).  Crime will be represented by violent interpersonal acts and non-violent acts.  Also, the specific violent interpersonal acts dependent variables include the following:  assaults, homicides, domestic violence, sexual violence, and child abuse.  The specific non-violent acts dependent variables include the following: burglary, robbery, and theft.  The specific drug use independent variables include the following: specific drug used, drug price, age of user, personal income, and dollars spent on drug use.  The following list shows all variables used in this study:

Dependent variables:                 assaults                         burglary

                                                homicides                      robbery

                                                domestic violence          theft

Independent variables:  specific drug used

                                                drug price

                                                age of user

                                                personal income

                                                dollars spent on drug use

In order to test the relationships between the multiple dependent variables and the multiple independent variables, we will use the statistical tool called canonical correlation analysis (CCA).  CCA is a logical extension of multiple regression analysis.  Multiple regression involves a single metric variable and several metric independent variables.  With CCA we can analyze several dependent variables and several independent variables.  CCA correlates simultaneously several metric dependent and independent variables.  One can use as many dependent and independent variables as needed for the analysis.

Part II

In addition to looking at crime and drug use, we plan to look at the relationship between specific drug use (dependent variable) and personal income and age of user (independent variables).  We expect that there is a predictive relationship among those variables that would pose interest to researchers and policy makers.  A multiple regression will be used to examine this particular relationship.

 

Expected Results.  The results from the canonical correlation analysis will allow us to test our predictions pertaining to the strength of specific variables as well as the strength of the relationships among all variables.  In particular, the analysis will yield raw canonical coefficients for the variables, standardized variable coefficients for the variables, and correlations between the variables and their canonical variable equivalents.  These coefficients and correlations will allow us to see whether or not our predictions are significant.

 

Discussion. The results of this study will provide important information about particular crimes and the economic factors of drug use that affect those crimes.  Policy makers could use this information in order to determine strategies that may diminish significantly the amount of criminal activity related to drug use.  One strategy could be a tax structure for legalized drug use.  More and more each year, political discourse arises pertaining to whether or not drugs should be legalized.  There is evidence that legalization could result in billions of dollars in potential tax revenues.  In this study, our main goal was to begin foundational work that may be used to guide policy makers toward the development of an effective tax structure for drug use.

 

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