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Atlantic
Economic Journal |
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| VOLUME 31 |
DECEMBER
2003
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NUMBER 4
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E-Mail: iaes@iaes.org
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| Table of Contents | Submission | Manuscript Instructions | Anthology Instructions | Membership | Web Founders | Endowment Fund | IAES Officers | Front Page | |||
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This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25-64 year
old Americans for the period 2000-40. The analysis uses data from the
Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with
the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the
population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational
attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills
and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap.
The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics---specifically
educational attainment---will continue to close the gender wage gap. However,
even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size
of that in 1995 will remain. (JEL J16); Atlantic Econ. J., 31(4): pp.
316-29, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved
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The objective of this paper is to determine whether the
observed variation in the response of market interest rates over the 1990s
to the news about employment is a result, at least in part, of changes
in expectations for monetary policy. Fed funds futures rates, which embody
predictions for the expected monthly average of the daily effective funds
rate, are used to capture market participants' expectations for monetary
policy in the face of employment surprises. It is found that unanticipated
employment announcements have a positive and statistically significant
impact on one- and three-month-ahead fed funds futures rates and the size
of the impact declines over the 1990s, thereby coinciding with a noticeable
decline in the frequency of adjustment in the fed funds target rate. (JEL
E40, E50); Atlantic Econ. J., 31(4): pp. 330-37, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved
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In this study, it is hypothesized that higher (rising)
real PAC election campaign contributions may lead the public to increasingly
distrust and resent politicians because of the perceived political influence
that these contributions exercise. It is further hypothesized that to
express that distrust and resentment, the public may make greater efforts
to evade income taxation so as to deny tax revenues to the Treasury and
"influence-peddling" politicians. Instrumental Variable (IV) estimates
in first differences that allow for income tax rates, IRS audit rates,
IRS penalty assessments on detected unreported income, and the public's
dissatisfaction with government per se, find strong, albeit only preliminary,
empirical evidence that tax evasion is an increasing function of real
PAC election campaign contributions.(JEL D7, D72); Atlantic Econ. J.,
31(4): pp. 338-47, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved
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Until recently, most studies investigating the determinants
of growth failed to incorporate the importance of institutions into the
empirical analysis. This paper highlights the importance of institutions
on growth and development and evaluates the empirical results on the effect
of institutions on growth and investment. It provides ample evidence that
the institutional environment in which an economic activity takes place
is an important determinant of economic growth. This paper uses alternative
measures of institutional quality to capture the role of institutions
in explaining growth differences across countries. When these institutional
variables are incorporated into the core regression equations as additional
explanatory variables in two different sample periods, both samples yield
similar results. The empirical results reveal that countries with high
levels of economic growth are characterized by high levels of economic
freedom and judicial efficiency, low levels of corruption, effective bureaucracy,
and protected private property. (JEL H11,O40); Atlantic Econ. J., 31(4):
pp. 348-62, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved
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Previous studies of oil-price economic activity relationships
are dominated by macro-level examination of price effects. This study
examines the effect of shocks in oil price and its volatility on the oil
and gas extraction industry using a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) approach.
The results show that in the short-run, positive price and volatility
shocks lead to significant increases in oil and gas activities. However,
in the long-run, the industry behaves much like the rest of the U.S. economy---price
and volatility shocks produce small or insignificant effects. (JEL C3,C5,Q4);
Atlantic Econ. J., 31(4): pp. 363-75, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved
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A Note on the Effects of Elections Subject to Judicial Review J.J. ARIAS |
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The most recent U.S. presidential election raised the questions of whether or not agents who believe that losing candidates will contest the results of close elections perceive their vote as more important and whether or not they will be more or less likely to vote. The analysis involves a two-player voting game with one of the players initially in a weaker position because he loses all ties. The key variable is the probability of the weaker player winning the post-election judicial review process. The relationship between this probability and the level of voting for the weaker player is non-monotonic. Also, if this probability is sufficiently close to one-half, contesting close elections leads to increased voting, lowering social welfare. (JEL D72); Atlantic Econ. J., 31(4): pp. 376-83, Dec. 03.ŠAll Rights Reserved |
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